Course Management · Tip
Three Questions Before a Risky Shot
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Bad lie, tricky shot? Before you go for it, ask three questions. First, is this a shot I've pulled off before? If not, choose something else. Second, how often would it work? If you can't guess, go back to question one. If you can, it should work more than half the time. Third, does this shot suit my strengths? Often the smart move is taking relief, even with a penalty. Then lean on the parts of your game you trust.
Step by step
- Look at the lie carefully.
- Have I hit this shot before?
- Will it work more than half the time?
- Does it suit my strengths?
- Take relief when it's a gamble.
Why it works
A risky shot has two costs: the chance it fails and what a failure leaves you. Asking whether you have hit it before and how often it works replaces hope with an honest estimate. If a shot works less than half the time, the misses outweigh the gains, and a penalty stroke for relief often costs less than the extra strokes a failed attempt leaves you with.
Common mistakes
- You judge the shot by the best result you can imagine, not by what usually happens.Picture the typical outcome of the last few similar attempts and base your answer on that.
- You count a shot you have only seen or heard about as one you have pulled off.Answer yes to question one only if you have hit that shot yourself, from a similar lie.
- You treat relief as giving up and skip it to avoid the penalty stroke.Compare the penalty with the likely cost of a miss, and take relief when the gamble fails the three questions.
How you'll know it's working
- You can name a specific past shot when you answer question one.
- You make the same choice between attempting and taking relief whether you are ahead or behind.
- You hold fewer big scores on holes where a single bad lie used to turn into a double bogey or worse.
Make it easier or harder
Easier: Practise the questions on a calm, practice-round hole, where a wrong choice costs nothing, before you use them in play.
Harder: Use them under pressure, such as in a match or while counting a card, and say your answers to each question out loud before you choose.
Common questions
How do I decide if a risky golf shot is worth trying?
Ask if you have hit it before, if it would work more than half the time, and if it suits your strengths. If any answer is no, take the safer option.
Is it smart to take a penalty drop instead of a risky shot?
Often yes. One penalty stroke is usually cheaper than a failed attempt that leaves you in the same trouble or a worse spot.
